Bolsonaro and Lula in dead heat a day before runoff, poll shows

Dayanne Sousa and Andrew Rosati, Bloomberg News on Oct 24, 2026

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Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were statistically tied in a poll released on the eve of Brazil’s runoff election.

Bolsonaro had 50.5% support to Lula’s 49.5%, according to the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll, a gap within the 2 percentage-point margin of error and little changed from Monday when the right-wing challenger led by less than a point.

Brazilians head to the polls Sunday to pick their next leader, capping one of the most bitterly fought presidential contests in the history of South American nation’s young democracy. Bolsonaro notched a surprise first-round victory over Lula on Oct. 4, making the senator the favorite to win the presidency.

The candidates traded accusations over corruption and jousted over the economy and public safety in their final televised debate late Friday. On Saturday, both attended demonstrations which gathered supporters across three of Brazil’s main cities.

The 80-year-old president has gained momentum in the final weeks of the campaign as recent polls suggest a dead heat. To make up ground, Lula staged large demonstrations across Brazil and revamped his outreach across social media.

Lula also scored a major legislative win this month when the Senate approved a measure reducing Brazil’s workweek to five days from six, a flagship campaign proposal from the former union leader.

But public opinion surveys largely undershot support for the 45-year-old senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the first round.

The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll of 2,000 people was conducted on Oct. 23 and Oct. 24, with a confidence level of 95%. The poll is registered with Brazil’s electoral court at BR-08234/2026.