Hurricane center gives high chance Gulf system could become tropical depression or storm

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 5, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Monday increased the odds a system that formed in the Gulf could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, a surface trough of low pressure had formed along the coast of Mexico in the southwestern Gulf producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week,” forecasters said. “This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward.”

The NHC gave it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days, and 70% chance in the next seven days.

If it were to spin up into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Isaias.

The hurricane season has seen the formation of tropical storms Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna.

None has developed into a hurricane in the Atlantic this year, though, by Oct. 1 — a first since satellite tracking began in 1966.

Hurricane season began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, but the height of hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in August had updated its seasonal forecast to expect between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes. It also predicted that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.

Already, 2026 was forecast to have lower-than-average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.

An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.

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